Market Scenario
📊
Click Run Simulation to model 500 different market scenarios
Uses your plan's return assumptions as the mean, with configurable market volatility
❓ What is Monte Carlo simulation?

The main projection chart shows one possible future — the one where your investments earn a smooth, average return every year. Reality is messier. Markets swing up and down, and the order of those swings matters enormously.

Monte Carlo simulation runs 500 randomized market scenarios using your plan's return assumptions as the average, but with realistic year-to-year volatility layered on top. Each scenario is a plausible version of your financial life — some lucky, some unlucky.

🌞 The shaded bands

The wide band shows the 10th–90th percentile range of outcomes. The narrow inner band shows the 25th–75th range. The median line (50th percentile) runs through the middle — half of all scenarios land above it, half below.

⚡ Sequence of returns risk

A bad decade at the start of retirement is far more damaging than a bad decade at the end — you're drawing down the portfolio before it can recover. This is why the cone of outcomes widens so dramatically after the retirement line.

✅ Success rate

The success rate tells you what percentage of the 500 scenarios still had money left at your life expectancy. A rate above 85–90% is generally considered a robust plan; below 70% suggests you may want to save more, retire later, or reduce spending.